Forecasters say there could be months still to go before the culmination of El Niño, a climate pattern characterized by higher sea surface temperatures and precipitation across the equatorial Pacific Ocean that can affect weather across the globe.
The warm phase of an oscillating cycle that recurs every few years, El Niño officially arrived in June, and at the time scientists anticipated that the phenomenon would likely continue into the latter part of 2023. Now, in an updated outlook released Thursday by the National Weather Service’s Climate Predication Center, forecasters said there was an 80% chance that El Niño would persist into the Northern Hemisphere’s spring season and linger until May of next year.
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There is also a high probability that El Niño will become stronger than usual as it finishes out its current run, which could mean its mark on winter temperatures as well as rain and snow patterns around the world may be more evident, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.
El Niño is part of the alternating El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which is a changing system of contrasting climate phenomena in the equatorial Pacific Ocean south of Hawaii. This cycle is influenced by trade wind patterns and their impact on sea surface temperature. El Niño occurs when warmer temperatures and increased precipitation are observed in this region, replacing its opposite phase, La Niña, which is characterized by colder conditions. Both El Niño and La Niña are identified by deviations from the normal sea surface temperatures and precipitation in the Pacific.
The extent to which El Niño affects global weather patterns depends on its strength. The warmer ENSO phase has intermittently disrupted marine ecosystems and can wield significant influence over the weather in the United States, where El Niño is typically associated with wetter conditions along the Gulf Coast and in the Southeast that sometimes cause serious flooding. This phase of the climate cycle generally brings warmer and dryer weather to northern parts of the U.S. as well as Canada.
The impact of El Niño on the climate in the United States in 2023 has deviated from what previous patterns would have predicted.
According to NOAA, last July set a new record for global ocean surface temperatures, marking the fourth consecutive month of record highs. Additionally, the month had the highest sea surface temperature anomaly in NOAA’s 174-year record. The agency acknowledged that these exceptional conditions may be linked to the typical warmth observed during El Niño.
But the atmospheric conditions normally created by this phase, which tend to help decrease tropical activity during Atlantic hurricane season, developed slower than anticipated. Hurricane season lasts annually from June until November, and this one was more active than normal, even though it is usually La Niña that corresponds with increased hurricanes in the U.S.
“Depending on its strength, El Nino can cause a range of impacts, such as increasing the risk of heavy rainfall and droughts in certain locations around the world,” said Michelle L’Heureux, a climate scientist at the Climate Prediction Center, in a statement announcing El Niño’s impending arrival earlier this year.
L’Heureux stated that climate change has the potential to worsen or alleviate certain effects associated with El Niño. One such effect is the possibility of setting new temperature records, particularly in regions that already encounter higher-than-normal temperatures during El Niño events.
According to scientists, the impacts of El Niño typically intensify during the fall and winter seasons. Therefore, in the upcoming months, certain regions may experience higher levels of precipitation and snowfall, provided that the climate pattern persists. However, the exact manifestation of these effects is somewhat uncertain, as stated by NOAA. They highlighted that due to the changing global climate, this El Niño event is operating in a distinct environment compared to previous instances of El Niño.
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