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June 29, 2023
Please note that the entire team at Montana Free Press will be on vacation next week to celebrate the Fourth of July. Therefore, there will be no Capitolized on Thursday, July 6. We will be back with more political news the following week. Thank you for your understanding!
It’s Tim Time!
The highly anticipated U.S. Senate race in Montana has now officially begun.
Former Navy SEAL and Belgrade businessman Tim Sheehy Tuesday declared his candidacy for the U.S. Senate, making him the first Republican to formally announce a 2024 challenge to Democratic Montana Sen. Jon Tester.
Tester, the sole Democrat holding statewide office in Montana amidst years of Republican success, is perceived by political analysts as one of the U.S. Senate’s most at-risk members in the upcoming election cycle. With Democrats currently holding a slim 51-49 majority in the Senate, Republicans are determined to regain control of the chamber. Tester, along with a few other Democrats from traditionally conservative states, poses a hindrance to their ambitions.
In a statement released on Tuesday, Sheehy, the founder and CEO of Bridger Aerospace, a company specializing in aerial firefighting, expressed his determination to bring genuine leadership to Washington in order to safeguard our nation and preserve the cherished Montana way of life.
He expressed to Fox News Digital, “In my opinion, Americans are experiencing a sense of being underrepresented. They are exhausted by a government that they believe is failing to serve their interests.”
The top issues mentioned by him were inflation, border security, and the federal budget deficit. Requests for an interview this week were left unanswered by Sheehy’s team.
Speculation about the potential entry of Sheehy, a 37-year-old Minnesota native who relocated to Montana after serving in the military, has been circulating for months. She was recruited by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, led by Sen. Steve Daines, Montana’s other U.S. senator, to participate in the GOP campaign organization.
Earlier this year, Tester made it known that he plans to pursue a fourth term in the U.S. Senate.
Observers of Montana politics may find Sheehy’s profile quite familiar. Like Daines and Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte, he possesses wealth, business credentials, and resides primarily in the Bozeman area, despite having out-of-state connections. Additionally, his background as a SEAL aligns him with Montana Republican U.S. House Rep. Ryan Zinke.
Kal Munis, a political scientist from Montana and Utah Valley University, explained that the reason for their strong desire to recruit him was likely due to his ideal qualifications. Munis, whose research focuses on political behavior in Big Sky Country, emphasized that aside from his capacity to financially support himself, his background made him extremely adept at convincing the public.
It’s also perfect fodder for Dem opposition research, which was already flying in the days following his announcement. The Montana Democratic Party has honed in on both his purchase of expensive properties in Big Sky and on Flathead Lakeat a time when the state is dealing with a housing crisis and his out-of-state roots, drawing a contrast with Tester, a self-described “dirt farmer” from Big Sandy with several generations of family in the state. (Tester, per federal election records, is also a millionaire, though that’s not exactly unusual in the wealthy gerontocracy of the U.S. Senate).
According to Monica Robinson, a representative of the Montana Democratic Party, it has been stated that Jon Tester possesses farm equipment that has been in Montana for a longer time than Tim Sheehy. Robinson also expresses concerns over having a senator who is an out-of-state transplant, brought in by Mitch McConnell and D.C. lobbyists. She further suggests that Tim Sheehy’s challenges are only just commencing.
It’s a familiar line. The state Democratic party has deployed similar criticisms of Gianforte (who is from the Philadelphia suburbs), Zinke (who is from Whitefish but has a residence in California), Montana congressman Matt Rosendale (who is from Maryland) and others, to varying degrees of success. When Rosendale — who still has a noticeable Maryland accent — challenged Tester in 2018, Democrats branded him “Maryland Matt.”
Tester’s victory over Rosendale that year was likely due to his significant advantage in fundraising, as well as his incumbency and candidacy during a midterm election with a Republican president. The alliterative nickname for Rosendale probably had little to do with the outcome. On the other hand, both Zinke and Gianforte have managed to secure federal or statewide positions, despite facing criticism for their connections to Montana and Zinke’s involvement in numerous ethics investigations during his tenure as Secretary of the U.S. Department of the Interior.
“They consistently bring it up during every election, regardless of whether they are native Montanans like Ryan Zinke who happen to own property elsewhere, or individuals like Steve Daines who have a complex background, or even people like Sheehy and Rosendale who have no true ties to the state,” Munis explained. “They have exhausted this tactic. However, it is crucial to acknowledge that there is now a significant population of non-Montanans residing in the state, and these messages do not strike a chord with them.”
It’s hard to pin down the political affiliations of Montana’s many recent arrivals, but it’s safe to say that high-growth counties like Flathead and Ravalli are deeply conservative. On the flip side, Gallatin and Missoula counties are also adding residents at a healthy clip, and lean consistently Democratic.
It is unlikely that Sheehy will have a straightforward route to secure the GOP nomination.
On Monday, Politico reported what’s already been widely rumored to be true — that Rosendale, a conservative hardliner affiliated with the House Freedom Caucus, is also planning a bid for Senate.
On Tuesday, Rosendale wasted no time in criticizing Sheehy, claiming on Twitter that McConnell and the “party bosses” were responsible for selecting the new candidate.
Rosendale wrote that Washington now has two candidates, Tim Sheehy and Jon Tester, who will safeguard the DC cartel. However, Montanans do not comply with Washington’s commands. He believes that Montanans are weary of the usual practices and will refuse the McConnell-Biden Establishment.
In a statement, a representative for Rosendale stated that the congressman, who has served two terms, is currently undecided about taking on Tester. However, it was emphasized that Rosendale enjoys the trust and strong backing of Montana voters. The spokesperson further mentioned that the people of Montana deserve a better representative than Sen. Tester, who is perceived as a yes-man for the Democrats, or a candidate chosen by McConnell and the elites in Washington, D.C.
The spokesperson highlighted a survey conducted by Public Policy Polling, which is commonly regarded as a liberal pollster. According to this poll, out of the 510 likely GOP primary voters who were surveyed, 67% expressed support for Rosendale, whereas only 10% favored Sheehy. It is worth mentioning that polling in Montana is notoriously challenging due to its vast geographical area and low population density.
A Rosendale entry would complicate the race’s picture considerably. His recognition on the GOP’s right flank and high-profile rebellion against House Speaker Kevin McCarthy would make him a formidable opponent in a primary, Munis said, but might not do much for him in a general election.
Other Republican officials are already taking sides. Politico reported Wednesday that some Republican lawmakers and donors are urging Rosendale not to challenge Sheehy, while others, like Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, are encouraging him to take his chances. Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte, meanwhile, endorsed Sheehy,
Daines told Politico that he really likes Rosendale, “which is why I am encouraging him to build seniority for the great state of Montana in the House and help Republicans hold their majority.”
Donald Trump remains the key variable in this situation. Tester has never experienced running alongside Trump at the forefront, and Trump has a tendency to mobilize infrequent voters who lean towards the Republican party and would typically abstain from voting, according to Munis. Furthermore, Tester’s triumph over Rosendale in 2018 was fueled by a strong backlash against Trump’s presidency. However, the tables have turned now, and Tester will have to navigate the challenges posed by President Joe Biden’s low favorability ratings.
Munis stated that there will be birds returning to roost here, which were absent in 2018.
—Arren Kimbel-Sannit
A Tax Cap in Court
Litigation has hindered the signature-gathering process required to include Ballot Issue 2 on the 2024 ballot. This proposal, led by Bozeman attorney Matt Monforton, aims to introduce a constitutional amendment in Montana that establishes a definitive limit on property tax collections. Under this amendment, property value assessments for tax calculations would not exceed a 2% annual increase, and annual taxes on “real property” would be limited to 1% of its assessed value.
Attorney General Austin Knudsen’s office has determined that the measure is “legally insufficient.” According to a memo dated June 5, Knudsen’s legal team has asserted that the proposal is too vague to be included on the ballot and contravenes the state Constitution’s restriction on initiatives that attempt to alter multiple aspects simultaneously. In response, Monforton has taken legal action by filing a lawsuit on June 15, urging the Montana Supreme Court to reverse the aforementioned ruling.
Issue 2 is similar to last year’s Constitutional Initiative 121, which sought to cap taxes for residential properties. That initiative, which failed to clear the signature-gathering threshold necessary to make the 2022 ballot, was also advanced by Monforton. It was opposed by a coalition that included the Montana Association of Realtors and the Montana Federation of Public Employees, the state’s largest public employees union.
In an interview with Capitolized this week, Monforton challenged the analysis conducted by the governor’s budget office, which suggests that Issue 2 would lead to an 88% decrease in property tax collections. The analysis fails to consider the potential implementation strategies that the Legislature might adopt if the initiative is approved by voters. Monforton argues that this omission undermines the accuracy of the analysis.
—Eric Dietrich
Small Grabs MT AFL-CIO Gig
As we foreshadowed in last week’s Capitolized, Republican state Sen. Jason Small, R-Busby, was elected executive secretary of the Montana AFL-CIO at its convention last weekend. Small — a member of the Northern Cheyenne Tribe — is the first Republican and the first Indigenous person to lead the labor federation in Montana.
—Arren Kimbel-Sannit
On Background
Meet The Millionaire ‘Cowboy’ And Ex-Navy SEAL Being Primed To Take On Sen. Jon Tester: HuffPo was among the first to unpack candidate Tim Sheehy’s personal history, his business, his ranching assets and his properties.
CI-121: The initiative that could upend Montana’s tax system: The property tax initiative at the center of a legal battle with the Montana Department of Justice is similar to 2022’s CI-121, which Montana Free Press described in this report last year.
Senate Republicans try to stop messy Montana primary: A potential Sheehy-Rosendale matchup has some Republicans nervous, per this Politico story.
