The Texas Tribune is your source for in-depth reporting on the Ken Paxton impeachment trial. Readers make that possible. Support authoritative Texas journalism with a donation now.
Ken Paxton rides again.
Despite facing numerous legal, personal, and political challenges over the years, Texas’ attorney general, known for his ability to withstand scandals, achieved his most significant vindication on Saturday. The state Senate’s vote for acquittal in his impeachment trial marked a major victory for him.
It represented a significant milestone in a twenty-year political journey where Paxton skillfully utilized Texas’ increasingly conservative politics, and later capitalized on the emergence of Donald Trump, to extend his time in power beyond what his weaknesses would normally allow.
Similar to Trump, he maintains a devoted political following that is willing to disregard his personal shortcomings as long as he remains a prominent figure in combatting the left. Just like Trump, he faced impeachment from the House but was spared by a Senate where fellow Republicans showed little interest in defying that influential support.
After the trial, Paxton rises with newfound confidence, transforming into a revered figure among the deeply conservative sector of Texas’ Republican civil war, earning the status of a folk hero in the state.
Paxton released a statement celebrating his acquittal, saying the “truth prevailed.” He is not expected to speak out again until an interview next week with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson.
“In an interview, Nick Maddux, Chief Political Adviser to Paxton, expressed that this triumph signifies not just a win for the rule of law and Constitution, but also a significant milestone in the longstanding struggle within the Republican Party. He further explained how all the internal conflicts within the party reached a critical climax during the summer of 2023.”
According to Maddux, the House committed a significant error in gauging the Senate’s perception of the impeachment. He further stated that this action only served to bolster Paxton’s standing within the party.
Despite gaining newfound political influence from the trial, Paxton’s legal troubles continue to linger. A securities fraud case, which has been ongoing for a significant period, is expected to go to trial next year. Furthermore, there is a possibility that a federal grand jury may still indict Paxton for the allegations that played a central role in his impeachment trial. These claims revolve around the accusation that he misused his position to assist his friend and donor, Nate Paul.
House Speaker Dade Phelan, R-Beaumont, alluded to Paxton’s ongoing legal issues in responding to his acquittal.
Phelan stated in a statement that if additional facts continue to emerge, those responsible for permitting him to retain his position will bear significant accountability.
However, at present, Paxton is able to revel in the spotlight more than ever before.
According to Matt Rinaldi, the Texas GOP chair who opposed Paxton’s impeachment, Paxton has managed to endure numerous controversies due to two factors. Firstly, he consistently fulfills his campaign promises, which earns him support. Secondly, GOP voters carefully evaluate the credibility of the individuals making allegations against him.
Rinaldi explained that the lack of trust in institutions has led to people being skeptical about the allegations against him.
Rinaldi highlighted the trial, during which the credibility of the FBI became a prominent subject. Numerous House witnesses voiced their trust in the agency, a sentiment that Republicans have started to regard with growing suspicion.
Rinaldi stated that this is the very reason why people have a lack of trust in all these allegations initially.
Two decades in elected office
First elected to the Legislature in 2002, Paxton carved out a profile as a hardline conservative and ran against the GOP speaker, Joe Straus, in 2010, a futile campaign that nonetheless ingratiated him with an ascendant wing of the party.
In 2012, when the Tea Party movement had gained significant momentum, Paxton effortlessly secured the local Texas Senate seat as there was no opposition in the primary.
He did not spend much time in the Senate, though, launching a campaign months later to replace Greg Abbott as attorney general in 2014. He went to a primary runoff against then-state Rep. Dan Branch, a more moderate Republican allied with the Bush family. Boosted by an implicit endorsement from U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, a rising star in the party, Paxton won the runoff by a nearly 2-to-1 margin.
However, it was during the contest that Paxton’s most enduring legal issue began. Just weeks prior to the runoff, he was reprimanded by the Texas Securities Board and fined $1,000 for soliciting investment clients without proper registration.
After settling the fine and attempting to put the incident behind him, Paxton’s tenure as attorney general took a turn for the worse. Just seven months into his first year, he faced serious charges when a grand jury in Collin County indicted him on three felony counts. The charges included securities fraud and the failure to register as an investment adviser. Paxton was specifically accused of knowingly withholding information about his compensation from a McKinney technology company while offering individuals the opportunity to purchase its stocks.
He could potentially be sentenced to a maximum of 99 years in prison.
The trial has been continuously postponed due to multiple pretrial disputes raised by both parties. However, there is a possibility of finally setting a date for the trial during the hearing scheduled for October 6th.
Paxton faced federal charges in the securities matter as well, but he managed to successfully overcome the case in just a few months, marking it as one of his final triumphant victories amidst his ongoing legal battles.
Despite any concerns the charges may have caused among Republicans, they failed to display any visible signs of distress. In the 2018 primaries, Paxton faced no opposition, indicating his strong support within the party. However, the general election proved to be unexpectedly challenging as he narrowly secured a victory by a 4 percentage point margin against Justin Nelson, a Democratic lawyer who had extensively publicized Paxton’s mugshot on billboards throughout the state.
By 2020, Paxton had become entangled with Nate Paul, an Austin real estate investor and campaign donor whose business empire was crumbling. Their increasingly close relationship alarmed Paxton’s top deputies so much that seven of them reported Paxton to the FBI in the fall.
The whistleblowers stated that they firmly believe that the attorney general is disobeying federal and/or state laws, which encompass restrictions regarding unethical manipulation, misuse of power, bribery, and possibly other criminal acts.
In addition, the whistleblowers revealed that Paxton had engaged in an extramarital affair with a woman working for Paul, which contradicted his reputation as a conservative advocate for family values.
As Paxton’s issues escalated, he became even more closely aligned with Trump. He initiated a lawsuit that ultimately failed, seeking to overturn Trump’s defeat in four crucial states, and he delivered a speech at a rally in Washington, D.C., prior to the Jan. 6 uprising at the U.S. Capitol. Subsequently, the Texas Bar Association filed a lawsuit accusing him of professional misconduct stemming from his attempts to undermine the legitimacy of the president.
The whistleblower claims were enough to earn Paxton a serious primary challenge in 2022 from three high-profile candidates: Land Commissioner George P. Bush, former state Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman and U.S. Rep. Louie Gohmert, R-Tyler. Texans for Lawsuit Reform, the powerful tort reform group, and its donors got behind Guzman, showing a new willingness by the GOP establishment to try to stop Paxton.
Paxton easily secured victory in the runoff against Bush, with a commanding two-thirds majority of the vote. Paxton’s campaign was bolstered by a timely endorsement for his reelection bid from Trump. Throughout the runoff, Paxton vowed to bring an end to the longstanding Bush dynasty.
Paxton faced Democrat Rochelle Garza in the general election but beat her by a wider margin than he did Nelson.
Caleb Milne, a Democratic activist who has been involved in Collin County for a long time, expressed his ongoing frustration in witnessing Paxton successfully avoid any form of accountability, especially during elections.
Milne admitted, “Initially, we believed that Rochelle Garza had a strong chance of winning him over due to the overwhelming evidence of corruption within the Republican Party. However, we should have realized that this does not automatically lead to party defections.”
Not going away
So what comes next for Paxton?
Even before he was impeached, his supporters were promoting him as a potential candidate for U.S. Senate in 2026, when Republican John Cornyn is up for reelection. There is no love lost between Paxton and Cornyn, the rare Texas Republican who has continuously raised concern about the whistleblower claims.
Paxton’s close relationship with Trump might prove advantageous, particularly considering Trump’s increasing chances of becoming the Republican presidential nominee next year. Well before the impeachment proceedings in Texas, the ex-president had even suggested the possibility of appointing Paxton as the U.S. attorney general if he were to win the presidency once more.
Paxton may potentially seek retribution against House Republicans who impeached him by actively campaigning against them in the upcoming March 2024 primaries. To show her loyalty to Paxton, his longtime aide Michelle Smith has already made a donation in July to support a primary challenger against state Rep. Andrew Murr, R-Junction, who served as the chair of the House impeachment managers.
“Absolutely, I did!” exclaimed Smith in a tweet following the revelation of the donation. “And I plan to contribute even more in the future.”
Paxton retweeted a post endorsing Wes Virdell, the challenger, following his acquittal on Saturday.
Rinaldi anticipates Paxton will play a vital role and have significant involvement in the primaries.
Paxton’s wife, State Sen. Angela Paxton, has already signaled that she is not going anywhere. She made a point of announcing her reelection campaign the weekend before the impeachment trial started.
According to the recent survey conducted by the University of Texas at Austin, Paxton’s overall approval rating is currently at its lowest point in the past two years. However, the study also revealed that among Republican voters, his popularity remains strong, with a 2-to-1 margin in his favor.
Many political observers believed that even if he had been convicted, it would not mark the end of his political career. According to them, Paxton has repeatedly demonstrated his ability to overcome challenges and emerge as a political survivor.
Bob Stein, a political scientist at Rice University, noted that although they have inflicted significant damage upon him, the individual in question remains remarkably resilient when examining the polling data. Stein speculates that this individual will likely endure and not fade away.
Disclosure: Rice University, Texans for Lawsuit Reform and University of Texas at Austin have been financial supporters of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune’s journalism. Find a complete list of them here.
The Texas Tribune Festival is almost here! Join us Sept. 21-23 in downtown Austin for 125+ unforgettable conversations featuring nearly 300 speakers. Be there for Texas’ biggest politics and policy event when you buy your tickets today.
